[Analysis] "2026 Digital Asset Market Volatility Expands... Policy and Event Risks Concentrate"

This year, the digital asset market is expected to enter a phase of high volatility as changes in monetary policy coincide with a schedule of large-scale events.

On the 4th, virtual asset (cryptocurrency) service provider Matrixport said in its '2026 Outlook: Navigating a High-Stakes Year for Digital Assets' report, "2026 will be a turning-point year in which changes in the leadership of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), a slowdown in the labor market, policy risks surrounding elections, and the most event-concentrated schedule in recent years coincide."

The report pointed out, "Monthly (U.S.) consumer price index (CPI) and employment data releases, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that include updated projections, and periods of potential government shutdowns could repeatedly spur market volatility." It explained that these macro variables could affect not only traditional assets including stocks and bonds but also digital assets broadly.

Internal factors in the virtual asset market include the final implementation of MiCA in Europe, major protocol upgrades, the Mt. Gox bond repayment deadline, and the 15-month period leading up to the Bitcoin (BTC) halving, which were cited as major high-risk events.

Matrixport said, "Market flows in 2026 are more likely to show patterns in which risk events occur intensively over short periods rather than following a single trend," and "investors need to actively manage their positions and exposure timing around policy event windows."

However, Matrixport added, "This public summary focuses on describing the overall environment," and "specific directional judgments and cycle models are based on proprietary signals and analysis that have not been disclosed."