Gemini "Bitcoin '4-year cycle' to break… national-level accumulation also begins"

Patrick Liu, Gemini's head of institutional, identified this year as a structural inflection point for the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market. He forecast that as institutional investor entry and macroeconomic factors drive the market, the four-year halving cycle will be nullified.

On the 6th (local time), according to BeInCrypto, Liu said, "2026 will be the year existing conventions about the Bitcoin cycle, regulation, and capital flows are broken."

Liu first predicted that Bitcoin's traditional 'four-year cycle theory' will come to an end. He said, "In past cycles Bitcoin plunged 75~90% from its peak," and analyzed, "the recent drop of around 30% is evidence that the market has matured."

He added, "Inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETF) and the deepening of the derivatives market are absorbing market shocks," and "implied volatility in the options market has also stabilized from the 80% range in the past to the recent 25~40% range, and Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative asset to a macro asset."

He also predicted that ahead of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, virtual assets will emerge as a bipartisan policy agenda.

He said, "The Republicans reached out to virtual asset voters first, but the Democrats are also accelerating market-structure legislation and actively engaging," and observed, "the Clarity bill pending in the Senate is likely to pass soon through bipartisan agreement."

He also forecast national-level Bitcoin purchases. Liu predicted, "At least one country will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin." He analyzed that for countries seeking to reduce dollar dependence and diversify assets, Bitcoin's portability and verifiability could be an attractive alternative.

In addition, Liu identified as major 2026 trends the explosive growth of prediction markets (Prediction Markets) and the start of restructuring of distressed virtual asset-holding companies (DATs). He cited, in particular, the case of Strategy recording large losses in the last quarter and its stock plunging 60%, saying, "It will be difficult to survive with simple buy strategies alone," and "M&A between companies will become active."