Possibility of a U.S.–North Korea summit next year; NIS: "March will be a turning point"

Tracking behind-the-scenes movements in preparation for a meeting

"Kim Jong Un, no major health abnormalities"

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said at the parliamentary inspection on the 4th that "the period after the South Korea–U.S. joint exercises scheduled for March next year will be a turning point in U.S.–North Korea dynamics." It assessed that Kim Jong Un, chairman of North Korea's State Affairs Commission, is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States and does not have major health abnormalities. There are also observations that, as behind-the-scenes signs of preparations for a U.S.–North Korea summit have been detected, a summit could materialize as early as next year.

Park Seon-won of the Democratic Party of Korea and Lee Seong-gwon of the People Power Party, the ranking members from both parties on the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee, told reporters after the NIS hearing that "a U.S.–North Korea summit tied to the APEC leaders' meeting in Gyeongju failed to take place, but signs of Kim Jong Un preparing for a meeting were confirmed." U.S. President Donald Trump, who visited Korea late last month to attend the APEC summit, had said before and after the event that he wanted to meet Kim Jong Un, but North Korea did not respond, so the meeting did not occur.

The NIS reported that "there are indications that North Korea analyzed the tendencies of the U.S. administration's North Korea working-level staff, and subtle changes are detected in North Korea's rhetoric about being a nuclear state," adding "North Korea is also assessed to be restraining direct remarks about nuclear armament and moderating its tone after the Supreme People's Assembly." It also detected that Choe Son-hui, who handles U.S. diplomacy for North Korea's foreign ministry, was seriously considering a visit to Russia during the APEC leaders' meeting up until the last moment.

The NIS reported that after the large-scale military parade held for the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party last month, the largest event, the 9th Party Congress, is expected to be held in January or February next year, followed by the 1st Supreme People's Assembly. Lawmaker Park argued, "Since the South Korea–U.S. joint exercises are scheduled for March next year, there is a possibility that a U.S.–North Korea summit will be pursued." Regarding Kim Jong Un's health, he said, "Although it is known that he has underlying conditions, he has been able to travel long distances between Pyongyang and the provinces and carry out various events without difficulty, so it is assessed that there are no major health abnormalities."

The NIS also reported that North Korean troops deployed to the Russia–Ukraine war were once again observed moving to Russia. The NIS said, "Some 5,000 members of a North Korean construction unit have been moving to Russia in sequence since September," adding, "They are expected to be mobilized for infrastructure restoration." It further added, "Inside North Korea, training and conscription trends in preparation for additional deployment continue to be detected, and the situation is being monitored."

Reporter Bae Seong-su baebae@hankyung.com