"Bitcoin unlikely to surpass $125,000 by year-end"

Bitcoin's rally has weakened, and some experts say the year-end 2025 price targets they set will be difficult to achieve.

On the 4th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in four months, and selling by long-term holders has been strengthening selling pressure across the market.

Houston Morgan, a ShapeShift analyst, said, "It will be difficult for the year-end Bitcoin price to exceed $125,000," adding, "A new bull market will not be easy unless Bitcoin breaks away from its high correlation with policy announcements related to U.S. President Donald Trump."

Bitfinex analysts also said, "The continued selling by long-term holders is acting as a structural pressure," and analyzed, "If Bitcoin's price does not quickly recover above $116,000 in a situation of declining demand, the risk of further declines will increase." They added, "The upward momentum is gradually weakening, and the longer the stagnation phase lasts, the more investor sentiment is dampened."

Earlier, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, and Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, forecasted in early October that "Bitcoin could rise to $200,000–$250,000 within this year," but there are also assessments that the likelihood has diminished.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, said, "For Bitcoin to reach that price would require 'a level of luck where the stars must align.'"

Market views on next year are also divided. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, sees "2026 as a positive year for Bitcoin," whereas financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth predicted that "2026 is likely to be a bear market similar to an intermediate correction." Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently warned that "Bitcoin could fall to around $60,000."