[Analysis] Limited Bitcoin rebound amid ETF outflows and macro uncertainty…"It's too early to judge a trend reversal"

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow range from the $85,000 level to the low $89,000s, continuing a limited recovery since last week's sharp decline. The market showed a short-term rebound, but the prevailing assessment is that it is still too early to deem it a trend reversal.

On the 25th (local time), according to crypto-focused media The Block, Bitcoin traded between $85,000 and $89,150 earlier in the week. Weekend gains pushed the total crypto market capitalization back to about $3.07 trillion, and Ethereum and Solana traded in the $2,900s and around $136, respectively, showing some recovery.

However, the market rebound was limited to major assets. Small- and mid-cap altcoins remained relatively weak, having not fully absorbed last week's leveraged liquidation shock.

ETF flows also continued to diverge. The Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $151 million as risk-off sentiment persisted, while Ethereum and Solana ETFs saw inflows of $97 million and $58 million, respectively. The Solana ETF recorded net inflows for 20 consecutive trading days since its launch.

Over the past few weeks, the global crypto ETP market has experienced large-scale redemptions. According to CoinShares data, global crypto ETPs saw net outflows of $1.9 billion last week, marking the third-largest outflow since 2018.

Timothy Misir, head of BRN Research, analyzed, "While Bitcoin is being chosen as a risk-off asset, selective rotation of long-term capital into Ethereum and Solana is occurring." He added, "Key indicators such as trading volume, fees, and realized market capitalization have all weakened," and explained, "This is a typical late-stage correction pattern in which market participants have returned to a wait-and-see mode rather than a panic sell-off." He noted, however, that short-term holders remain in large unrealized loss zones, so it is too early to view this as a definitive bottom signal.

Misir said, "Bitcoin still remains in a 'high-volatility accumulation zone' between $84,000 and $90,000," and analyzed, "Some conditions for bottom formation are present, but it is too early to confirm durability."

This week, delayed major macro indicators including the Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, initial jobless claims, GDP, and core PCE are scheduled to be released in succession, and analysts have pointed to this as a 'decisive macroeconomic window.'

Ruslan Lenka, head of YouHodler Market, projected, "As the U.S. stock market is currently in a correction, Bitcoin's short-term direction will likely be heavily influenced by equities." He added, "Institutions have reduced exposure and retail investor sentiment is subdued, so a cautious trend is likely to continue for the time being."