Ethereum whales skeptical about 'reclaiming $4,000' despite 15% rebound

Ethereum (ETH) price recovered about 15% from last week's low of 2623 dollars to retake the 3000 dollars level, but on-chain indicators and derivatives positions show that whale investors still do not trust a strong rebound. With decentralized finance (DeFi) deposit sizes, network fees, and leverage demand all shrinking, a cautious sentiment is growing that a wait-and-see period will continue in the short term.

According to Cointelegraph on the 27th (local time), the annualized funding rate of Ethereum perpetual futures has remained virtually at 0% since the beginning of the week. Compared to the normal range usually formed between 6% and 12%, this means that bullish bets using leverage have almost disappeared. Analysis says that since large forced liquidations occurred during the 20% crash on October 10, the market as a whole has become even more cautious about increasing leverage.

On-chain indicators also show a conservative trend. According to DefiLlama, the Ethereum network's total value locked (TVL) fell from 99.8 billion dollars in early October to 72.3 billion dollars recently. Nansen data also showed that Ethereum network fee revenues decreased by about 13% over the same period.

Whale and market maker positions are also defensive. According to CoinGlass, the long·short ratio of top Ethereum traders on OKX is about 23% recently, continuing a short-dominant trend. Even in figures combining spot, margin, and futures, aggressive long leverage signals are not detected, and the market appears to place more weight on managing downside risk than on re-challenging 4000 dollars.

The macro environment is also acting as a factor weakening short-term momentum. According to Yahoo Finance and Reuters, plans for layoffs by U.S. companies in November have exceeded 25,000. Some companies cited increased cost burdens and a slowdown in consumption due to the effects of a government shutdown as the main background. Adam Sarhan, representative of 50 Park Investments, said, "If the economy is robust, there is no reason for large-scale layoffs," warning of a decline in risk-asset preference.

However, some analyses suggest that in the medium to long term the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) shifting to a looser monetary policy remains alive amid widening fiscal deficits and slowing growth. In this case, there is expectation that major crypto assets like Ethereum could again benefit as funds are diversified into alternative assets beyond government bonds and stocks. However, in the short term, the overlap of uncertainty in employment and consumption indicators, on-chain contraction, and risk-avoidance sentiment in derivatives markets is widely seen as constraining the possibility of recovering 4000 dollars.