Arthur Hayes "Bitcoin has hit the bottom... Will reach $250,000 by year-end"

Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX, once again stood by his forecast that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $250,000 by year‑end.

On the 28th (local time), appearing on the Milk Road Show, Hayes said, "I will not change my outlook." He had previously identified the time when Bitcoin fell to $80,600 last week as the cycle bottom. In fact, Bitcoin has rebounded about 12% from that point and is trading around $91,000.

Hayes explained, "US dollar liquidity has hit the bottom," and said, "The large‑scale leveraged liquidations that occurred on October 10 reset market positions and created a trend reversal."

He added, "A large portion of the funds flowing into BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF 'IBIT' is the result of institutional 'basis trade' strategies," and said, "That leverage structure is all over. This is the bottom and it can go higher." Basis trade is a structure in which large institutions such as Goldman Sachs buy spot ETFs to use as collateral and build short positions in the CME futures market. Afterwards, when funding rates fall, they sell the ETF and buy back the futures positions to realize arbitrage profits.

He also predicted that the end of Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening will drive Bitcoin's next upward phase. The US Fed cut its policy rate by 25bp in October, and local markets see an 87% probability of a rate cut by December 10. Some analysts have also suggested the possibility of ending quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1.

Hayes forecasted, "This environment could lift Bitcoin beyond its current all‑time high of $126,220 to $250,000 by year‑end."