[Analysis] "Negative factors already priced into Bitcoin price... Upside potential is increasing"

An analysis has been raised that Bitcoin (BTC) has increasing upside potential.

On the 28th (local time), Andrei Dragosh, head of Bitwise Europe research, said on his X, "The current macro environment is very similar to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic," and evaluated, "This degree of asymmetric risk-reward is the first since 2020."

Dragosh said, "Bitcoin has already priced in a recession phase," and analyzed that "the most pessimistic global growth outlook since 2022 is reflected in the price." 2022 was a period when the market as a whole was hit hard by the Fed's rapid tightening and the collapse of FTX.

He said, "Since most of the negative news has been reflected in the price, downside risk is limited," and predicted, "As after the pandemic, the lagged effects of prior monetary easing can support future growth. In particular, the recovery trend could continue until 2026."

After breaking through its all-time high of 126,199 dollars last October, Bitcoin turned down as a large-scale liquidation of about 19 billion dollars on October 10 and President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods overlapped. In November, it fell below the psychological support level of 100,000 dollars, greatly dampening investor sentiment, and on the 20th it was pushed down to around 90,000 dollars at one point.

Dragosh emphasized, "From now on, it is the time when the effects of the monetary policy the Fed has taken will be fully reflected in the market," and stressed, "Despite short-term volatility, one must not overlook the possibility of a rebound in the future."

That day, Bitcoin was trading on the Binance Tether (USDT) market at the 90,800 dollars level, about 1% down from the previous day.