Summary
- Ethereum(ETH) recovered $3,000, but the futures premium is at an annual 3%%, indicating a lack of leveraged long demand.
- In the options market, put option prices are 6%% higher than call options, showing that investor sentiment remains cautious.
- Declines in network fees and DEX volume, along with whale movements, lead to assessments that Ethereum lacks a clear excess return momentum versus the market.
Ethereum(ETH) has reclaimed the $3,000 level, but the market still views Ethereum's short-term direction negatively.
On the 2nd (local time), according to Cointelegraph, Ethereum's futures premium remained at around an annual 3%. Considering that it usually forms above 5% in a bull market, leveraged long (buy) demand has effectively disappeared. After a 22% plunge over the past 30 days, investors appear hesitant to expand positions.
In fact, the sentiment in ETH derivatives and options markets remains cautious. In the options market, put option (sell) prices are formed at a 6% premium compared to call options (buy).
On-chain indicators also reflect this mood. Ethereum network fees totaled $2.6 million over the past 7 days, marking the lowest level in three years. DEX trading volume fell from $36.2 billion in August to $13.4 billion recently. By contrast, Tron(TRX)·Solana(SOL) increased fee revenues by 9% over the same period, enhancing their competitiveness.
Some whale movements also fueled concern. About 40,000 ETH that had not moved for 10 years were suddenly transferred to another address, raising the possibility of selling.
The 'Fusaka' upgrade aimed at improving Ethereum's scalability is also scheduled, but with dApp demand and network utilization slowing, assessments say Ethereum's momentum to generate excess returns over the market is not yet clear.
Doohyun Hwang
cow5361@bloomingbit.ioKEEP CALM AND HODL🍀
