[Analysis] Short-term rebound in the crypto market... Caution spreads as Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain death crosses

The crypto market has recovered slightly after more than a week of declines, but key indicators still point to a bearish phase. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to show death crosses, and the market as a whole has not escaped a technical shift to weakness.

On the 8th (local time), according to Decrypt, total crypto asset market capitalization was $3.08 trillion, down 1% from the previous day, but it has held the $3 trillion level after last week's sharp drop. The Fear and Greed Index recovered to 24 from the extreme fear level of around 10 recorded at the end of November, but it still remains in the fear zone.

Bitcoin was trading around $90,170 on the day, down 0.26% for the day but up 6.4% as of the 7th. Intraday high was $92,296 and low was $89,618. However, technical indicators clearly show a shift to bearishness regardless of the short-term rebound. Bitcoin's 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day moving average, maintaining the death cross formed on November 16, which is interpreted as a factor that strengthens downward pressure on the medium-term trend.

The ADX, which indicates trend strength, is 32.9, signaling a strong trend phase. ADX does not indicate direction, but combined with a reversal of the normal order of moving averages, it suggests the current trend may expand to the downside. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 44, remaining neutral, so neither buyers nor sellers have the upper hand.

Key price zones are listed as resistance at $99,036 and $105,000, and support at $82,084 and $68,384. Technical analysis also indicates the Ichimoku cloud structure suggests further downside risk.

Ethereum showed a relatively better performance, but structural weakness remained the same. Ethereum was trading at $3,112, up 1.7% on the day. Intraday high was $3,180 and low was $3,041, temporarily reclaiming the psychological support level of $3,000. It was up 14% for the week.

But Ethereum also continues in a bearish flow with its 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average, maintaining a death cross. ADX is 35.45, indicating a stronger downtrend than Bitcoin. RSI is about 49, in the neutral zone, and short-term selling pressure appears somewhat eased.

Key Ethereum price ranges were given as resistance at $3,174 and $3,596, and support at $2,753 and $2,152.

The Fed's rate decision is also a factor that could increase market volatility. According to CME FedWatch, the market sees about a 90% chance of a rate cut at this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A rate cut could stimulate risk-on asset preference, but analysts say additional momentum is needed to reverse the technical bearish structures of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The market consensus is that it is difficult to view this rebound as a trend reversal until Bitcoin reclaims the 200-day moving average near $105,000 and Ethereum breaks above the top of the Ichimoku cloud.