Charles Hoskinson "Quantum computing threat to blockchain is exaggerated…will take shape after the 2030s"

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson argued that the quantum computing threat raised in the blockchain industry has been overblown. He explained that technologies to switch to quantum-resistant cryptography already exist, but due to performance degradation and increased costs, there is little practical need to switch at this point.

According to BeInCrypto's report on the 8th (local time), Hoskinson recently called the quantum threat a "big bait" on a podcast and said that actual urgency will only appear when reliable progress is confirmed in military benchmarks. He pointed out that while it is possible for blockchains to transition to quantum-secure systems, adoption is difficult immediately because of speed and cost issues.

He explained, "Quantum-resistant protocols are about 10 times slower in processing speed and 10 times more costly than existing ones." He added, "No one wants a structure where a network that processes 1,000 transactions per second drops to 100 for quantum security."

Delays in standardization were also cited as a major factor slowing the transition. Hoskinson explained that until the US government establishes NIST-based FIPS 203–206 standards, if the industry adopts its own algorithms there is a high risk they will be discarded later. He assessed that the recent start by hardware vendors to develop accelerator chips based on approved quantum-resistant algorithms is an important turning point.

He emphasized that "choosing non-standard algorithms makes hardware acceleration impossible and makes things 100 times slower," and that adoption of NIST standards guarantees speed, security, and efficiency. He interpreted the fact that the US government and major infrastructure companies such as Cloudflare have already adopted quantum-resistant key exchange as a sign that pressure to transition will gradually increase.

Hoskinson saw the timing of the quantum threat as after the 2030s. He introduced that the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is operating the Quantum Blockchain Initiative (QBI) and is evaluating whether quantum computers could become practical by 2033. He said the program is conducting verification work with 11 companies, and that this will serve as a criterion for the military and government to determine when to upgrade cryptographic systems.

Analyses dominate that there have been no signs so far in research suggesting a collapse of blockchain cryptography. While quantum research continues, high costs, performance degradation, and ecosystem fragmentation issues are making immediate adoption of quantum-resistant cryptography by blockchains difficult.

Citing the consensus view of experts, Hoskinson said, "There is a high possibility that realistic progress will appear in the 2030s." He emphasized that blockchain's response to quantum is a matter of planning rather than fear, and that performance competition and hardware acceleration support will determine the timing of the transition.