IBK Securities "Next year's KOSPI band upper bound 4700… Earnings improvement centered on semiconductors"

IBK Investment & Securities presented an expected KOSPI band of 3500~4700 for 2026. The previous upper bound was 4000 points, but it raised the upper bound considering the semiconductor boom and earnings improvements. It forecast that if the won·dollar exchange rate falls and listed companies' active shareholder return measures become visible, the KOSPI's upper bound could be higher.

Byun Jun-ho, a researcher at the securities firm, said, "Although short-term market volatility has recently increased, expectations of a boom in artificial intelligence (AI) and the semiconductor industry have strengthened, and earnings estimates for KOSPI companies, centered on the semiconductor sector, are being revised upward."

IBK Investment & Securities analyzed companies within the KOSPI200 that have a consensus (the average of securities firms' estimates) and found that operating profit in 2026 is expected to increase by 46% compared to 2025. This is 15% percentage points higher than the late-October expected growth rate (31%). Compared with 2023, the operating profit of the target companies in 2026 is estimated to surge by 186%.

Researcher Byun said, "Compared to the end of 2023, the current KOSPI's rise is at the level of 56%. The market's rise is lagging behind the pace of earnings improvement," and added, "There is a risk that 2026 earnings forecasts could be revised downward, but we judge that the likelihood of that risk becoming prominent by the first quarter is small. Considering next year's earnings improvement, we estimate that the KOSPI still has room to rise."

IBK Investment & Securities listed conditions under which the KOSPI band could be raised in the future: a fall in the won·dollar exchange rate due to a Korea-U.S. currency swap, strengthened shareholder return measures, recovery of global trade due to tariff withdrawal, influx of foreign capital from inclusion in the MSCI developed markets index, and improvement in earnings credibility.

Factors that increase downside risk included expanded concerns about a U.S. economic recession, lagging inflation arising from tariff effects, a slowdown in AI investment momentum and an expansion of bubble concerns, and credit issues arising from prolonged high interest rates.

Meanwhile, the U.S. central bank (Fed) decided on the 10th (local time) after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower the target interest rate from the previous 3.75~4% to 3.5~3.75%.

Regarding this, Researcher Byun noted, "Although it was a hawkish FOMC, the related effects were already priced in as U.S. market interest rates have rebounded, and there does not appear to be much room for further increase from the current level," adding, "The fact that the Fed signaled liquidity provision through purchases of short-term Treasury securities is a positive factor."

He continued, "Considering that in past early rate-cut phases and liquidity-supply phases, the biotech sector's strength was notable, biotech sectors could be highlighted," and analyzed, "Because Kevin Hassett, who is being mentioned as a candidate for the next Fed chair, is a dove, expectations for a strengthening of the rate-cutting stance could also be reflected in the market."

Jin Young-gi, Hankyung.com reporter young71@hankyung.com