Strategist Carrie Craig: "The dollar will be weak over the next 10 years…broaden investment horizons globally"

Carrie Craig, J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist

If AI adoption improves productivity

Narrowing gap between emerging markets and the U.S. stock market

Manager Stewart "Korean stocks in focus

Long-term upward trend centered on semiconductors"

"The 'U.S. exceptionalism' that has unfolded around large tech stocks is not over, but now we need to broaden our view globally."

Carrie Craig, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management (photo), said on the 11th at a press briefing on the '2026 LTCMA (Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions)' hosted by Hanwha Asset Management in Yeouido, Seoul, that the dominance of the U.S. stock market is likely to gradually weaken. This is because of technological innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI).

Craig said, "If AI adoption improves productivity, the benefits will flow to more sectors and countries," and he predicted, "Profit growth rates in regions outside the U.S., where valuations (price relative to earnings) are relatively low, will rise and narrow the gap with U.S. stock prices." He added, "Due to U.S. nationalism and widening fiscal deficits, the dollar could be weak over the next 10 years," urging portfolio diversification.

Despite high valuations, Craig regards U.S. investment as still promising. He said, "I expect large U.S. stocks to return an average annual return of 6.7% over the next 10–15 years," explaining, "We must consider that firms at the forefront of AI technology are concentrated there and have very high profitability."

Jordan Stewart, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Multi-Asset Solutions, who presented the short-term market outlook, predicted that the U.S. stock market will have a 'strong start, weak finish' next year. He said, "Fiscal stimulus and AI capital expenditure increases will produce solid growth in the first half of next year, but in the second half growth will slow due to unemployment issues and companies' efforts to defend profit margins," and advised looking for investment alternatives in Asian markets such as Korea and Japan. Regarding the Korean stock market, he analyzed, "From a short-term perspective, growth potential is very high," adding, "A value-up program is underway and many companies, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are at the center of the AI technology trend."

Stewart emphasized, "More capital investment is needed to expand semiconductor production capacity in Korea, which could be a golden opportunity for foreign investors," stressing, "If foreign investors buy won with dollars and invest in Korea, a foundation for a long-term upward trend for the overall market will be established."

Hanwha Asset Management is collaborating with J.P. Morgan to apply LTCMA to target date funds (TDFs). 'Hanwha LIFEPLUS TDF' has achieved performance that ranks within the top three for five-year returns for all vintages.

Reporter Ji-yoon Yang yang@hankyung.com