Bitcoin remains weak after FOMC… December inflation data a key variable

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued a correction flow after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting in December and is seeking direction below $90,000. Market participants say the December U.S. inflation data has emerged as a key variable that could determine year-end trends.

On the 15th, crypto-focused media outlet The Block reported that Bitcoin was trading below $90,000. Ethereum (ETH) held around $3,100, while Binance Coin (BNB) and Solana (SOL) were trading near $890 and $132, respectively.

Although the Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, its policy messaging remained cautious. As a result, additional chase buying has been limited in both spot and derivatives markets.

With the Fed's FOMC schedule for the year concluded, market focus has shifted to U.S. macro indicators. Retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and Fed officials' remarks are concentrated in a short period, increasing the possibility of repricing rate expectations.

Timothy Mishir, BRN's head of research, said, "For the market, inflation data that can justify or overturn a rate cut will play a decisive role beyond the rate cut itself." He added, "If inflation comes in higher than expected, a hawkish interpretation of the cut could be reinforced, whereas softer figures could leave room for a year-end rebound in risk assets."

Meanwhile, the trend of deleveraging continues. Mishir, citing CoinGlass data, explained that positions worth about $298,000,000 were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for roughly 80% of that amount. While speculative leverage has been unwound, this has not led to a clear rebound.

On-chain indicators suggest selling pressure from large holders is easing. According to CryptoQuant, inflows to Binance of amounts of 1 BTC or larger have fallen to their lowest level since 2018.

Mishir said, "Inflows from large wallets to exchanges have plummeted," adding, "Prices are weak, but internal stress is easing."

Market uncertainty is also reflected in institutional outlooks. Standard Chartered recently lowered its Bitcoin year-end 2025 price target from $200,000 to $100,000, citing a slowdown in corporate-balance-sheet buying and ETF inflows occurring more slowly than expected. However, it kept its long-term target at $500,000 while pushing back the expected timing from 2028 to 2030.

The media noted, "With liquidity reduced ahead of year-end, Bitcoin's direction is likely to be largely driven by macro indicators and changes in rate expectations for the time being." Analysts say this is a phase where capital preservation is more important than short-term aggressive trading.