U.S. spot bitcoin ETF outflows..."The interpretation that institutions are abandoning it is exaggerated"

Large outflows occurred from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but analysts say it is premature to interpret this as institutional investors abandoning bitcoin. Despite short-term adjustments and a weakened expectation for a year-end rally, core indicators suggest the price structure is being maintained.

On the 17th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin (BTC) rebounded after falling to 85,000 dollars the previous day, reaching 87,828 dollars. However, since the sharp drop on October 10, flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have weakened, increasing skepticism about the possibility of surpassing 100,000 dollars within the year.

In fact, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of 358,000,000 dollars in a single day. This was the largest daily outflow in the past three weeks. The market observed that institutional investors appear to be reducing exposure after the psychological support level of 90,000 dollars was breached. Currently, bitcoin's price is about 31% lower than the all-time high of 126,219 dollars.

However, some analysts say this decline does not signify a trend reversal. X user forcethehabit (forcethehabit) analyzed that short-term pressure increased mainly because rate cuts were delayed and the Fed's balance-sheet reduction lasted longer than expected, and that institutional funds mainly flowed in through ETFs and corporate treasury assets, with no rotation into high-risk illiquid assets yet observed.

The correlation between bitcoin and gold was also cited as a factor weakening the institutional exodus theory. Bitcoin benefited from the digital-gold narrative throughout 2025, but the 60-day correlation coefficient with gold has alternated between positive and negative without showing consistency. It has underperformed gold by 48% since July, but analysts say this is insufficient to conclude a change in asset characteristics.

Volatility indicators are also hard to interpret as structural bearish signals. Bitcoin's three-month implied volatility peaked at around 53% in November, comparable to Tesla. While rising volatility can lead market makers to strengthen risk management, it does not necessarily indicate a bearish shift.

Cointelegraph judged that it is premature to conclude institutional investors have left bitcoin based solely on the roughly 10-week correction and ETF outflows. The Fed's recent liquidity-supply effects have not yet been fully reflected in the market, and correlation and volatility indicators likewise do not show a fundamental change in price behavior.