KOSPI Falls Below 4,000…"Rebound Strength Is Limited" [Preview of Today's Market]

With U.S. markets showing mixed moves overnight, domestic markets are expected to take a wait-and-see stance on the 17th. The KOSPI, which fell nearly 4% over two days, is analyzed to have limited upside even if it rises.

The previous day, the KOSPI closed at 3,999.13, down 2.24% from the previous session. This is the first time the KOSPI has fallen below the 4,000 level in 10 trading days since the 2nd. Concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble spread as economic worries about the U.S. and China grew. Foreign investors led the decline by selling the equivalent of 1.03 trillion won. The KOSDAQ index also fell 2.42% from the previous session.

Semiconductor stocks led the day's decline. Samsung Electronics fell 1.91%, SK Hynix fell 4.33%. Other large-cap stocks such as LG Energy Solution fell 5.54%, and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries fell 4.9%.

Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed. On the 16th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,114.26, down 0.62% from the previous session. The S&P 500 index closed at 6,800.26, down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,111.46, up 0.23%.

November employment indicators were mixed, making it difficult to gauge the future market direction. November nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 from the previous month, exceeding Dow Jones expectations (45,000), but the unemployment rate was 4.6%, the highest in four years.

U.S. retail sales for October, released the same day, were flat month-on-month, falling short of market expectations (0.1% increase). There is also a possibility that the figures were distorted due to delays in data collection caused by the government shutdown.

However, major tech companies mostly rose. Except for Alphabet (-0.54%), Nvidia (0.81%), Apple (0.18%), Microsoft (0.33%), Amazon (0.01%), Meta (1.49%), and Tesla (3.07%) all saw their stock prices rise.

Tesla in particular extended its four-day winning streak, with its stock hitting a one-year high. Tesla closed at $489.88, up 3.07% from the previous day, marking the highest level since $479.86 on December 17 last year.

Investors are focusing on the U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Micron's earnings to be released on the 18th (local time).

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "There is a possibility of a rebound starting due to the excessive decline in yesterday's market and the easing of instability in U.S. AI-related stocks," but added, "With the coexistence of caution and expectation surrounding tomorrow's major U.S. events, any additional rebound strength will be limited and the market will shift to sector-differentiated trading."

Reporter Park Ju-yeon grumpy_cat@hankyung.com