[Analysis] Bitcoin rebound blocked and altcoins also pressured at supply levels…year-end rally expectations retreat

Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins attempted a short-term rebound but were stopped by selling pressure near highs, somewhat weakening expectations for a year-end rally. Technical indicators show clear major support and resistance levels, and the market appears to be in a wait-and-see phase.

On the 17th (local time), according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly recovered the $90,000 level intraday but gave back gains under selling pressure. Bitcoin is currently trading around $85,969. According to Farside Investor data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows totaling $634,800,000 so far this week, indicating continued caution among institutional investors.

On-chain analyst MorenoDV_ pointed to the 'True Market Mean (TMM)', which denotes the average acquisition price excluding inactive coins and mined supply, as a psychological baseline. The current TMM is around $81,500, and if that zone breaks, Bitcoin could face additional mid-term downward pressure. Meanwhile, Grayscale maintains the possibility that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing improved macro conditions and clearer U.S. regulation.

Technically, Bitcoin's $84,000 level is viewed as the short-term key support. If that zone breaks, there is scope for a correction toward the $80,600–$73,777 range. Conversely, if it reclaims the 20-day moving average near $90,037, challenges toward $94,589 and $100,000 are being discussed.

Ethereum (ETH) attempted a rebound near $2,960 but faced resistance at $3,066. The $2,716 and $2,623 zones are cited as main downside supports, and a break above $3,350 is seen as necessary for a trend reversal. Binance Coin (BNB) is testing support near $840, and a breach of $791 could open the door to further declines.

Ripple (XRP) continues testing support at the lower edge of a descending channel and around $1.61. On a rebound, selling pressure is expected around $2.03 and $2.18. Solana (SOL) remains weak near $122, with $110 and $95 noted as key supports.

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) are also in weak trends. Dogecoin's rebound attempts have been limited since falling below $0.13, although selling pressure on the relative strength index (RSI) has somewhat eased. Cardano could adjust to $0.32 and $0.27 if the $0.37 support is lost.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rebounded from $534 but faces the question of whether it can break above $558. HYPE is encountering resistance near $30.26, and Chainlink (LINK) defending $10.94 support could determine short-term direction.

Across the market, attention is focused on the repeated pattern of short-term rebounds being capped by selling near highs for both Bitcoin and altcoins. Considering ETF capital flows and technical resistance zones, many assess that a directionless volatile market is likely to continue through year-end.