Bitcoin potential adjustment to $70,000 rises… "Not a bear market signal but a cycle reset"

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a recent bearish trend, raising growing concerns about the possibility of further corrections. However, some market analysts interpret that even if Bitcoin falls to the $70,000 level, it is closer to a macro cycle adjustment than the start of a new bear market.

On the 17th (local time), according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin was trading around $85,792 and continuing to exhibit volatility. Market analysts have identified a short-term downside risk range of $65,000 to $75,000. They assess that this range differs in character from past large-scale sell-off periods, unlike systemic risk or phases of strong macro risk-off.

Crypto trader Jackis described the current correction as a macro price range that will span through 2025. He analyzed, "This decline is different from a typical bear market like in 2022 or early 2024," adding, "It is a correction that occurs as supply moves from early holders to institutional investors." He also cited the lack of strong risk-off signals across the macro environment as supporting evidence.

Technical indicators have also picked up signals suggesting the possibility of a rebound. Market analyst Jelle mentioned the potential formation of a bullish divergence on Bitcoin's 3-day chart. He said that in past cycles, similar 3-day divergences often coincided with the formation of short-term lows. He added, however, that additional consolidation and time accumulation are needed for the signal to become valid.

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at a global macro investor, expressed a similar view. Referring to past cases where Bitcoin followed a certain recovery path after the relative strength index (RSI) entered the oversold zone below 30, he analyzed, "Forming a bottom takes time and is often accompanied by highly volatile price movements." He also assessed that the influence of the traditional four-year halving cycle that explained Bitcoin's price is weakening, and that debt restructuring cycles and changes in the liquidity environment are creating a new market structure.

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's global macro director, interpreted the current phase as part of a long wave structure extending from 2022 to 2025. During this period, Bitcoin recorded a compound annual growth rate of approximately 105% over about 145 weeks. Timmer emphasized that while he does not rule out the possibility of further adjustment into the $65,000 to $75,000 range in 2026, that range has historically acted as a strong buying zone.

In the long term, Bitcoin adoption is expected to enter a mature phase, flattening the slope of the cycle. Timmer analyzed that if a new expansion phase opens, a path toward $300,000 by 2029 is theoretically possible. Market views are increasingly gaining strength that this correction phase may be a process of preparing for the next structural rise.