Bitwise "2025 Bitcoin volatility lower than Nvidia…impact of increased institutional participation"

An analysis has found that Bitcoin's price volatility in 2025 has been recorded at a lower level than that of leading tech stock Nvidia. It is assessed that the investor base has widened due to an influx of institutional investors and the spread of exchange-traded funds (ETF), and that the asset's characteristics are entering a mature stage.

According to a Cointelegraph report, asset manager Bitwise said in a report on the 18th (local time) that "Bitcoin's volatility has steadily declined over the past 10 years and will remain lower than Nvidia's volatility in 2026." It explained that this suggests Bitcoin has entered a so-called derisking phase, gradually moving away from being a high-risk asset.

Bitwise pointed to the spread of institutional investment products as the background for this change. It analyzed that as new investors flowed in through traditional financial products such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, investor composition diversity expanded, and accordingly price movements have become more gradual compared to the past.

The volatility gap between the two assets is clear in actual figures as well. Bitcoin showed about 68% price movement from this year's April low of $75,000 to the early October all-time high of $126,000. In contrast, Nvidia recorded a price swing of about 120% from an early April low of $94 to a late October high of $207.

Differences were also seen in year-to-date performance. Nvidia's stock rose about 27% year-to-date, while Bitcoin fell about 8% over the same period. Bitwise said this indicates that "since the second half of 2025 the crypto market is gradually decoupling from the stock market."

However, Bitwise remained optimistic about the medium- to long-term outlook. The report analyzed that Bitcoin is likely to set a new all-time high in 2026 and that the existing four-year cycle is also gradually weakening. It explained that the market is changing into a structure in which the halving effect, interest rate cycles, and leverage-driven rapid rises and falls do not act as strongly as in the past.

It also forecast that in 2026 participation in the crypto market by major traditional financial institutions such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch will expand, and allocations to spot crypto ETFs will increase. It projected that the regulatory environment will also continue to be pro-crypto, accelerating companies' adoption.

Bitwise added, "While tech stocks have risen about 140% over the past three years, crypto-related stocks have outperformed this," and "in future phases, crypto-related stocks may perform better than tech stocks."