U.S. $8 trillion debt rollover pressure…Bitcoin emerges as a variable in 2026

As the U.S. government faces about $8 trillion of Treasury maturities in 2026, changes in liquidity policy are emerging as a major variable for the virtual asset market. With large-scale debt rollover scheduled amid a high interest rate environment, market attention is focused on whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will respond.

According to AMB Crypto on the 19th (local time), the U.S. government must reissue about $8 trillion of bonds issued during the pandemic in 2026. As the current policy rate remains significantly higher than in 2020–2021, there is a possibility that rollover costs will increase.

U.S. fiscal conditions are also cited as a burden. As of fiscal year 2025, U.S. government debt reached about $38 trillion, a record high. Over the same period, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 124.3%, the highest level in four years.

The dollar's weakness continues. The dollar index (DXY) is down 9.16% year-to-date, marking the largest annual decline since 2017. Given that the U.S. is a major importer, a weaker dollar could translate into price pressures.

In this environment, markets are paying attention to the possibility of liquidity provision by the Fed. Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently said at a press conference that the next Fed chair is "very likely to have a tendency to keep interest rates low."

Market participants view these remarks and fiscal conditions as grounds for the Fed to provide liquidity during the Treasury rollover process. Some analyses also suggest this could create a favorable environment for risk assets.

In the virtual asset market, because Bitcoin (BTC) has been sensitive to changes in the macro environment, future liquidity policies could affect its price trajectory. However, the Fed's actual policy direction and timing have not yet been determined.