Altcoin season, the clock hasn't stopped yet…expectations for a full-fledged phase shift next year

Amid a market trend centered on Bitcoin, analysis suggests that the altcoin season has not completely disappeared. However, some observers say a full-fledged phase shift could occur after 2026.

On the 21st (local time), according to a report by AMB Crypto, opinions in the crypto asset market are divided between claims that an altcoin bull market is already underway and assessments that it is still premature. For now, Bitcoin still holds market leadership.

Market indicators also support this. As of the time of reporting, Bitcoin dominance is around 59.6%, remaining near recent highs. With capital concentrated in Bitcoin, the altcoin season index stayed around the 35 level. Generally, an altcoin bull phase appears when Bitcoin dominance falls noticeably and the index in question rises continuously.

Some analysts are focusing on 2026 based on similarities with past cycles. Altcoins, after long periods of underperformance following the bull markets of 2018 and 2021, have been attempting to rebound near long-term support relative to Bitcoin. They are said to be in a similar range now.

There is also discussion that Ethereum could again lead an altcoin rally. In past altcoin upswings, Ethereum acted as a leading indicator. Recently JPMorgan launched an Ethereum-based on-chain fund, and the fact that stablecoin trading volume reached a record high is also cited as related rationale.

Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC, said, "Both institutional and individual investors are looking for profit opportunities in the DeFi ecosystem," and added, "As we move toward 2026, Ethereum and major altcoins are likely to receive renewed attention."

However, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, pointed out that the very perspective of viewing an altcoin season might be wrong. He said on a recent podcast, "Altcoin season is not an event that comes once at a specific time."

Hayes said, "There is always an altcoin rally somewhere," and "If you feel there is no altcoin season, it may simply be because you do not hold the assets that have risen." He added, "In this cycle, it is highly possible that the same tokens or narratives as in the past will not repeat."

He cited Hyperliquid and Solana as examples. Hyperliquid surged from single-digit price levels shortly after launch, and Solana showed a rapid recovery after the crash in 2022. Hayes assessed this by saying, "There has already been an altcoin season."

Currently, although the market structure centered on Bitcoin is maintained, analyses continue that it is difficult to completely rule out the possibility of an altcoin rally. However, many market participants place weight on the point that a full-scale turning point may appear in 2026.