VanEck "Bitcoin hashrate has decreased 4% so far this month… Could it be a signal of a price rebound?"

The Bitcoin (BTC) network hashrate has shown a declining trend in December, and an analysis said this could be a signal suggesting a possible price rebound in the medium term.

On the 23rd, according to crypto-asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media CryptoNews, asset manager VanEck said in a research report that "the Bitcoin hashrate decreased by about 4% up to mid-December" and "in past cases, Bitcoin often recorded relatively favorable returns after a hashrate decline."

VanEck explained that, based on data since 2014, the proportion of instances in which Bitcoin's 90-day returns were positive after a 30-day hashrate decline was 65%, higher than when hashrate increased (54%). In particular, the proportion of instances in which 180-day returns were positive after a hashrate decline reached 77%, and the average gain was calculated at 72%.

This hashrate decline is interpreted as being linked to deteriorating profitability in the mining industry. With Bitcoin prices remaining about 30% below their peak, it was explained that in some regions rising electricity costs have led to continued shutdowns of mining equipment. VanEck pointed to the shutdown of roughly 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China as one of the main causes.

However, VanEck said, "miner capitulation phases have often been observed in the past as a stage before the market bottoms and transitions to a recovery phase," and evaluated that "a hashrate decline can be a short-term source of anxiety but can act to relieve supply-side pressure in the medium term."