[Analysis] Bitcoin remains quiet at year-end…"Low chance of a major crash in Q1 next year"

Analysis suggests that Bitcoin's lack of an overheated price surge through year-end could instead act as a factor reducing the possibility of a crash in the first quarter of next year. Anthony Pompliano, well known as a Bitcoin investor, drew a line under the possibility of a large-scale correction based on volatility flows.

According to Cointelegraph on the 24th (local time), Pompliano said in an interview with CNBC, "Considering current volatility levels, with Bitcoin's volatility significantly compressed, the likelihood of a plunge reaching 70% or 80% is very low."

He pointed out that short-term disappointment over Bitcoin not reaching 250,000 dollars this year is obscuring the overall trend. Pompliano explained, "Bitcoin has risen 100% over two years and nearly 300% over three years," adding, "it has continued compound growth." He added, "Bitcoin has been a monster asset in financial markets."

Pompliano said the drop in volatility has not received enough attention compared with the price decline since the start of the year. He said, "The blow-off top that the market expected at the end of Q3 or early Q4 did not materialize, but at the same time the 80% crash people expected also did not occur."

Bitcoin is currently trading at 87436 dollars, which is 7.39% lower than at the beginning of the year. Earlier, Bitmain chairman Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, among others, had projected that Bitcoin could reach 250,000 dollars this year.

However, not all market participants share the same view. Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could fall to 60000 dollars by the third quarter of 2026. Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro research at Fidelity, also mentioned that 2026 could be a year of rest for Bitcoin and that prices could fall to around 65000 dollars.