Trump: "95% Agreement on Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Plan"… Remaining 5% Is 'Donbas'

Trump–Zelensky Summit… Three-way Meeting with Europe Next Month

Trump: "Negotiations Can Be Concluded Within Weeks"

"Only One or Two Tricky Issues Left"

Zelensky: "100% Agreement on Security Guarantees"

Discussions on Donbas Territory on a 'Parallel Track'

Russia Demands Withdrawal of Forces from Eastern Combat Zones

Ukraine Wants to Maintain Current Front Lines

Discussions to end the Russia–Ukraine war are gaining momentum, but differences remain among the parties over the core territorial issues of a ceasefire plan. U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks on the 28th (local time) but failed to find a breakthrough. With February 24 next year marking four years since the war began, attention is focused on whether a truce can be arranged.

◇ Trump–Zelensky "Close to Agreement"

Trump: "95% Agreement on Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Plan"… Remaining 5% Is 'Donbas'President Trump met with President Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. At a subsequent press conference he said, "We have made a lot of progress on a ceasefire," and added, "If discussions go well from now on, the negotiations could be concluded within weeks."

When asked how close the ceasefire talks were to an agreement, President Trump expressed confidence, saying, "Their positions are closer than ever," estimating about 95%. He also said, "Whether it will come together remains to be seen, but it is very close." President Zelensky said, "There is 100% agreement on security guarantees between the U.S. and Ukraine," and "Security arrangements among the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine are also nearly agreed."

President Trump said that before meeting Zelensky he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for more than two hours and described the conversation as productive. After the meeting he shared the results with Zelensky and called leaders of key European countries.

The Trump administration prepared a draft peace plan last month consisting of 28 items, and has been coordinating a ceasefire plan with Russia, Ukraine, and European countries based on it. Although recent talks have shown progress, it is reported that major points of contention still exist. President Trump said, "There are one or two tricky issues," and added, "This is not a one-day negotiation but a complex matter."

◇ Differences Over Donbas

The '5%' that the parties have yet to agree on is expected to effectively determine whether a truce will hold. The biggest remaining problem is Donbas, the eastern frontline region of Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). Russia already effectively controls or has declared annexation of much of the area. Ukraine still controls parts of western Donetsk. Russia has demanded, as a precondition for a ceasefire, the immediate withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from across Donbas and that Ukraine surrender the territory. Ukraine, on the other hand, insists that at minimum the current front lines be set as the ceasefire line to prevent further territorial loss.

President Zelensky said, "Territories under our control are a matter for our citizens to decide," and emphasized that even if territorial status is negotiated, procedures reflecting public will such as referendums would be necessary. As a compromise, the U.S. proposed establishing demilitarized zones and free economic zones in parts of Donbas.

The issue of handling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest nuclear facility, is also a core contention. The plant is occupied by Russian forces and is being kept in a cold shutdown state. President Zelensky proposed a joint investment model with the U.S., in which the U.S. and Ukraine would split the power generated 50-50. Russia, however, already regards the Zaporizhzhia plant as Russian property.

◇ U.S.–Ukraine–Europe Meeting Next Month

A security arrangement for Ukraine involving the U.S. and Europe may also be unacceptable to Russia. According to a 20-point ceasefire proposal Ukraine released on the 24th, Ukraine would not accept Russia's demand to reduce the size of Ukrainian forces and would receive security guarantees comparable to NATO's collective defense clause (Article 5). Russia reacted negatively to such a plan.

President Trump said a three-way summit with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine could take place "at an appropriate time." President Zelensky posted on X (formerly Twitter) after the meeting that "he agreed with President Trump on inviting the leaders of Ukraine and Europe to Washington, D.C. in January next year."

Experts say it is unlikely that Russia will participate seriously in the negotiations this time either. Daniel Fried, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, told The New York Times in an interview that "the progress on security is positive, but there is no evidence that Russia is prepared to negotiate in good faith." There are also projections that if President Trump pressures President Zelensky to concede Donbas territory in order to secure quick results, it could trigger a political explosion within Ukraine and lead to the collapse of the Zelensky government.

Reporter Kim Ju-wan kjwan@hankyung.com