U.S. November Midterms: Will Democrats Reclaim the House...? A Gauge of 'Trump's Public Sentiment' [Sang-eun Lee's Washington Now]

The U.S. midterm elections scheduled for this November are a midterm assessment of a potential second Trump administration and a 'barometer' that can gauge the future direction of the presidency. In last year's elections the Republicans swept the presidency, the Senate, and the House. That provided a strong backdrop enabling the Trump administration to boldly push through even potentially controversial early policies. If either the Senate or the House loses its advantage to the Democrats in the midterms, many policies will find it difficult to get past the congressional barrier. Because they would be frequently exposed to risks such as a federal government shutdown, concerns about an 'early lame-duck' period are expected to grow.

This year's congressional midterms involve 35 Senate seats and 435 House seats. The Senate (100 seats), which has six-year terms, holds elections for one-third of its seats every two years. Although 33 seats are normally up for regular election, this year an additional Senate seat will be elected to succeed J.D. Vance, U.S. Vice President (Ohio), and Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State (Florida), who had been filling vacancies in an acting capacity. Of the 35 seats, 13 are ones the Democrats must defend, and the remainder are seats the Republicans must defend.

In the Senate, the Republicans hold 53 of the 100 seats. While it is not highly likely they will lose more than four seats, political experts expect some seats to flip to the Democrats. Particularly notable are competitive states such as Georgia (Democratic·Jon Ossoff), Maine (Republican·Susan Collins), North Carolina (Republican·Tom Tillis), and Michigan (Democratic·Gary Peters), among others.

Michigan, which leaned considerably toward the Republicans in last year's presidential election, is a barometer of sentiment in the Rust Belt. With incumbent Peters retiring, the election is expected to show clear partisan preferences. There is also interest in whether Senators Collins and Tillis, who at times have opposed President Trump and shown a 'my way' stance within the Republican Party, can win without Trump's support.

All 435 House seats are up for election. Currently the Republicans hold 220 seats in the House, only slightly above the majority threshold (218 seats). In addition, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (Republican·Georgia) has signaled she will retire in January. The Democrats have 213 seats, and two seats are vacant. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Democratic·California), who has announced her retirement, has asserted that the Democrats will regain majority status in the House this year.

Of the 50 U.S. states, 36 will hold gubernatorial elections. In addition, many key positions such as state attorneys general will change hands, and most state legislatures will be newly elected. Gubernatorial elections can also serve as a litmus test of public sentiment. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (Republican), where many Korean companies are located, cannot run due to a three-term limit, so both parties are expected to fiercely contest the seat. The New York governorship, for which Representative Elise Stefanik (Republican·New York) has declared her candidacy, is also receiving intense attention.

If candidates supported by President Trump suffer major defeats in the elections, or if several 'non-Trump' Republicans win within the party, those outcomes, together with the Supreme Court's reciprocal tariff ruling expected as early as this month, could become major factors affecting President Trump's grip on power.

Washington = Sang-eun Lee, correspondent selee@hankyung.com