Year-end effect distorts U.S. unemployment claims indicator…"Labor market assessment after mid-January"
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- It reported that due to the year-end holidays, the U.S. initial unemployment claims indicator is being distorted in the seasonal adjustment process.
- Citigroup said it is difficult to assess the state of the labor market based solely on the current unemployment claims indicator, and that a reliable assessment will only be possible after mid-January.
- The number of unemployment claims remains low, indicating no large-scale layoffs, and it forecasts an increase in December nonfarm payrolls and a slight rise in the unemployment rate.
- The article was summarized using an artificial intelligence-based language model.
- Due to the nature of the technology, key content in the text may be excluded or different from the facts.
On the 31st (local time), economic news channel Walter Bloomberg reported that, due to the year-end holidays, the U.S. initial unemployment claims indicator is showing significant distortions in the seasonal adjustment process.
According to Citigroup economists that day, during this year's year-end holiday period the seasonal adjustment volatility of unemployment claims has expanded much more than usual and is not accurately reflecting labor market trends.
Based on the Christmas week, U.S. initial unemployment claims were 199,000, down from 215,000 the previous week. This is well below the market expectation of 220,000.
Citigroup explained, "Because of seasonal adjustment distortions caused by the year-end holidays, it is difficult to judge the state of the labor market based solely on the current unemployment claims indicator," and added, "a more reliable picture will emerge only after mid-January."
It added, however, that the fact that the number of unemployment claims remains at a low level suggests that large-scale layoffs are not occurring.
Meanwhile, Citigroup forecast that nonfarm payrolls will increase by 75,000 in the December employment report due next week. It expected the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 4.7% due to an increase in labor force participation.
