Arthur Hayes: "U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Is Oil-Price Management... Conditions Favoring a Bitcoin Rally"
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Summary
- Arthur Hayes said that U.S. intervention in Venezuela and an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy could create a favorable environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
- He evaluated that an expansion of dollar liquidity could act as a medium- to long-term upward factor for the virtual asset market.
- He said that at present he is maintaining a high weighting of high-risk virtual asset positions centered on Bitcoin, and that he could turn defensive if signals of liquidity reduction, such as a sharp rise in oil prices, appear.
Analysts have suggested that U.S. intervention in Venezuela, combined with an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy stance, could continue to create a favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). If the policy direction remains to overheat the economy while suppressing energy price increases, an expansion of dollar liquidity could act as a medium- to long-term upward factor for the virtual asset market.
On the 6th, Arthur Hayes, founder of virtual asset (cryptocurrency) investment firm Maelstrom, wrote on his personal blog that "the top priority of U.S. politics is elections, and the key variable that determines elections is the economy." He said, "the most direct means of raising nominal GDP is credit expansion," and predicted that the U.S. government is likely to maintain a liquidity-provision stance to stimulate the economy.
Hayes especially interpreted U.S. moves around Venezuela in terms of managing energy prices. He explained, "The prices U.S. voters are most sensitive to are groceries and energy, among which gasoline prices stand out," and said, "If you push for economic growth while failing to restrain rising oil prices, the political burden grows." He argued that attempts to secure Venezuelan crude are also a strategic choice to control energy inflation.
He pointed to oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields as key signals of policy shifts. If oil prices rise alongside a sharp increase in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and bond volatility widens, the political sphere could adjust monetary policy stances; but if oil prices show a stable trend, he judged that the expansionary stance is more likely to be maintained.
Under such an environment, Bitcoin could act as a beneficiary asset of monetary expansion, he analyzed. Hayes said, "Bitcoin has a structure in which energy price fluctuations are reflected simultaneously across miners, making it a monetary asset where changes in energy prices do not directly constrain price formation," and assessed that "Bitcoin prices have structurally risen when dollar liquidity expands." He presented the correlation between increased dollar supply and Bitcoin prices as the basis for this view.
Regarding investment strategy, he said that as of early 2026 he is maintaining a high weighting in high-risk virtual asset positions centered on Bitcoin. He explained that Bitcoin serves as the base asset while selectively investing in DeFi and privacy-related virtual assets. He added, however, that if signals of liquidity reduction appear, such as a sharp rise in oil prices, he could switch to a defensive stance.
Hayes predicted, "Governments, knowing they would be disadvantaged in elections, do not stop supplying liquidity," and said, "As long as the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy stance is maintained, the favorable trend in the virtual asset market, including Bitcoin, is likely to continue."
