VanEck: “Policy visibility returning… risk-on shift possible in the Q1 investment climate”

Global asset manager VanEck forecast that as the visibility of fiscal and monetary policy improves, the investment environment in the first quarter this year is likely to shift into a risk-asset preference phase.

According to Cointelegraph, a specialized media outlet for virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), VanEck said in its recently released Q1 2026 outlook report that “as we enter 2026, markets are operating in an environment with unusually high visibility not seen in years.” VanEck assessed that uncertainty around the direction of fiscal policy, the monetary stance, and major investment themes is easing.

However, it maintained a cautious view on Bitcoin (BTC). VanEck said, “Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle was broken last year, which complicates the interpretation of short-term signals,” adding that “a more cautious approach is needed over the next 3–6 months.” It added that some internal figures are maintaining a more positive view on the short-term cycle.

VanEck cited improving U.S. fiscal conditions as a key backdrop. The report said, “While the fiscal deficit remains elevated, its share of gross domestic product (GDP) has been gradually declining from its peak during the COVID-19 period,” and analyzed that “this fiscal stabilization is supporting long-term rates and helping to mitigate tail risks.”

Market experts say the overall direction for the first half is becoming relatively clearer. The outlet reported that “following the correction phase at the end of last year, the first half of this year could form a typical setup in which the fiscal, monetary, and regulatory environment works favorably for risk assets.” It added that expectations are growing that the virtual-asset market, including Bitcoin, could also benefit from shifts in the macro backdrop.