"U.S. officials judge even an attack on Iran would be unlikely to topple the regime"

Troops withdrawn from a U.S. base in Qatar

Reportedly returning again

Advisers to U.S. President Donald Trump have concluded that an attack on Iran is unlikely to lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 15th (local time), citing sources, that President Trump received such an assessment from his advisers.

The advisers said a large-scale strike on Iran could trigger a wider conflict. They concluded that even a limited operation, rather than an all-out attack, might boost protesters’ morale but would ultimately be unlikely to stop the Iranian regime’s crackdown.

U.S. allies including Israel, as well as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Türkiye, reached similar conclusions. The New York Times (NYT) said, "Over the past two days, senior Middle Eastern officials conveyed to the United States a message that a U.S. attack could lead to a broader regional conflict." Iran has reportedly warned Gulf states that if it comes under U.S. attack, it would strike U.S. bases in the region.

The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is cited as the most likely target for Iranian retaliation. It is the base Iran struck in retaliation when the United States attacked Iranian nuclear facilities last June. The advisers told President Trump that additional military forces would be needed to protect U.S. troops and allies in the Middle East if Iran retaliates.

President Trump is said to have informed four Middle Eastern countries that he would not order a military attack on Iran, following the advice of his advisers. According to Reuters, U.S. aircraft that had partially withdrawn from Al Udeid are returning to the base. The Times of Israel reported that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff also suggested the United States prefers to resolve tensions with Iran through diplomatic means rather than military intervention.

Still, President Trump directed that military assets be positioned in the Middle East in case he decides to order a large-scale strike. Some observers say he is buying time by moving military assets to the region. A Qatari government official told the WSJ, "It could take 5 to 7 days for the United States to prepare a full-scale offensive."

Han Myung-hyun, wise@hankyung.com