Recession fears for the UK if Trump imposes tariffs… GDP could fall by as much as 0.75%

A warning has emerged that the UK economy could slip into recession if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on UK-made products.

According to the financial news alert account Walter Bloomberg on the 19th (local time), economic research firm Capital Economics analyzed that if the U.S. raises tariffs on UK-made products from the current 10% to 25% by June, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) could decline from 0.3% to as much as 0.75%. This amounts to an economic shock of about £22 billion (about 37 trillion won).

Financial markets reacted immediately after President Trump suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs on the UK and some European countries over the Greenland issue. European stocks broadly plunged, and the UK’s FTSE 100 index also fell. However, losses were relatively limited as defense-related shares and gold miners rose.

While European leaders criticized the tariff threat as “economic coercion,” the UK government signaled it would avoid an escalation of tensions, taking a cautious stance on retaliatory tariffs.

In the market, concerns are growing that if tariffs are actually imposed, the UK’s exports, investment and consumer sentiment could weaken simultaneously, significantly increasing downside pressure on the economy.