Bitcoin may post a fourth straight monthly decline…first time since 2018

Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly seen as likely to close out the month with a fourth consecutive monthly loss. It would be the first such stretch since 2018–2019.

According to CoinDesk, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,000, with its month-to-date return hovering slightly in negative territory. If it finishes this month lower after declines in October, November and December last year, it would mark four straight months of monthly losses.

Bitcoin entered a corrective phase after hitting an all-time high in October last year. The drawdown from the peak stands at about 36%. Notably, even during the 2022 bear market, monthly declines did not extend beyond three consecutive months, prompting views that the current pattern is unusual.

Derivatives markets, however, are also showing signs of positioning for a short-term rebound. Data from the options exchange Deribit show open interest in Bitcoin options expiring on the 30th at roughly $8.5 billion. Among them, the notional value of $100,000 call options is the largest at about $900 million.

The max pain price for this expiry is estimated at around $90,000. Typically, coin prices tend to gravitate toward the max pain level—where the greatest number of options contracts expire worthless.

Meanwhile, some in the market interpret the options activity as suggesting that, despite weakness in spot prices, demand remains to bet on a limited upside. Still, with the potential for heightened volatility through the end of January, attention is focused on the month-end close.