Progress in Trump–Schumer talks…Signs US federal government shutdown risk is easing

As political negotiations over a US federal government shutdown show progress, assessments are emerging that the likelihood of a near-term administrative gap is diminishing.

According to Coincodat.com on the 28th (local time), US President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are in talks to avert a federal government shutdown. The key issue is a plan to handle the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget separately from the broader appropriations package, with the focus on preventing even a minimal funding lapse ahead of the deadline on the 31st.

In Congress, a proposal to first pass a short-term funding bill for DHS is also being discussed. The aim is to avoid an immediate shutdown while buying time for more comprehensive budget negotiations.

Amid this progress, market perceptions are also shifting. On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the implied probability of a US government shutdown has fallen from 77% over the past weekend to around 40% currently. This aligns with interpretations that political discussions in recent days have moved toward a more substantive compromise phase.

Still, concerns persist within the Democratic Party. Schumer is reported to have said the DHS budget carve-out is "not enough," while stressing the need for a long-term solution through bipartisan negotiations.

Looking at past episodes, some analysis suggests that a government shutdown does not necessarily deliver an immediate shock to financial markets. In 2018, a 35-day partial shutdown occurred amid a dispute over border wall funding, but the cryptoasset market at the time saw only limited short-term impact.