Bets on Bitcoin falling below $65,000 spread…prediction markets tilt toward bearish сценарий

Bets that Bitcoin could fall further are spreading, centered on prediction markets. The implied probabilities are skewing more toward downside scenarios than expectations of a rebound.

According to Bloomberg on the 4th (local time), on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 this year was priced at 82%. That figure implies an additional decline of about 13% from the current price.

Some participants are wagering on an even more pessimistic outlook. While the odds of ending the year below $55,000 rose to about 60%, the probability of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 fell to 54% from 80% at the start of the year.

Bearish sentiment also stands out in short-dated contracts. In Polymarket’s February-expiry contract, the probability that Bitcoin trades below $70,000 through March 1 was priced at 72%. About $1.7 million has been wagered on that scenario.

Market participants cite Bitcoin’s recent failure to act as a safe haven as a bearish factor. Ilan Solot of Marex said the current flow in prediction markets reflects broader risk-off sentiment.

Bitcoin has fallen about 40% since hitting an all-time high of $126,000 last October. Over the same period, the total market capitalization of the crypto market also shrank from around $4 trillion to roughly $2.5 trillion.

Bloomberg reported that about $4 billion in net outflows from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs over the past three months has added to downward pressure on prices. The analysis also says long-term holders are amplifying concerns about a slowing cycle.

Still, some Wall Street institutions are leaving the door open to a rebound later this year. Standard Chartered and Bernstein lowered their price targets, but are maintaining the possibility of reaching $150,000 by year-end.