XRP falls below holders’ average cost basis…signs of spreading stop-loss selling

An analysis suggests that as XRP has slipped below the average cost basis of all holders, stop-loss selling is spreading. On-chain indicators show realized losses widening, reinforcing a bearish trend.

According to Glassnode on the 9th (local time), XRP’s 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) fell from 1.16 in July last year to 0.96 recently. An SOPR reading below 1 indicates market participants are selling at a loss rather than taking profits.

Glassnode said the pattern is similar to the early phase of past bear markets. During the correction from September 2021 to May 2022, SOPR also dropped below 1 and a prolonged downturn followed.

The report notes that this decline is drawing attention because it is not merely a short-term pullback, but a move into a psychologically important stop-loss zone triggered by a break below the average purchase price. If the share of holders in loss expands, additional selling pressure is more likely to emerge.

On-chain data have yet to show a clear signal of large-scale accumulation. As a result, the outlook suggests a volatile bearish trend could persist in the near term.

“Should SOPR remain below 1 for an extended period, the market may enter a structural correction phase,” Glassnode said, adding that “whether the trend reverses will hinge on whether selling pressure eases while prices remain in a loss zone.”