"Now Is Not the Time to Buy... Bitcoin’s ‘Real Bottom’ Seen in October"

"Now is not the time to buy. Digital-asset prices will fall further through October."

Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, a U.S. asset manager that runs exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to altcoins such as Ripple and Solana, warned in an interview with The Korea Economic Daily on the 10th that digital-asset prices are likely to remain in a correction phase through the second half of this year. Bitcoin, which surged to $120,000 last year, has now retreated to around $70,000.

He cited two reasons for the sharp selloff in digital-asset prices. The first is the so-called “four-year cycle theory,” which holds that bitcoin prices plunge every four years around the halving cycle. "The digital-asset market moves in four-year cycles," McClurg said, adding that “after topping out at $126,000 in October last year, the market will remain in a downtrend for about a year.” The bigger variable is macroeconomic conditions. "Delinquency rates on U.S. credit cards, mortgages and student loans are at their highest levels since the global financial crisis," he said, adding that "not only digital assets but also stocks, gold and silver could come under pressure."

He expects digital assets to bottom out in October this year. "It’s wise to hold cash and wait through the summer," he advised. He remains optimistic over the long term. "Starting late this year, when the down cycle ends, we could see a powerful bull market by 2027," McClurg said. "Bitcoin could rise as high as $200,000 to $250,000 (about 290 million to 360 million won), and Ripple could climb to as much as $10 (about 14,000 won)."

For investment strategy in a down market, he pointed to “utility.” He stressed that investors should focus on digital assets that can be used as real financial infrastructure—such as tokenization or stablecoin issuance—rather than mere speculative vehicles. That is also why Canary Capital is concentrating on altcoin ETFs. "Only coins with clear use cases will survive—Ripple as a financial platform, and Hedera, which is specialized in enterprise solutions," he said.

McClurg also repeatedly underscored the importance of the South Korean market in the interview. With strong interest from domestic investors in digital assets, and as the government recently said it would introduce spot crypto ETFs, expectations are growing that the market will expand. "There are many cases where bitcoin trading volume in won surpasses that in dollars, the global reserve currency—showing just how influential Korean investors are," he said. "If spot crypto ETFs are approved in Korea, the spillover effects on global markets would be enormous."

Reporter Yang Ji-yoon yang@hankyung.com