[Analysis] “Bitcoin trades sideways after technical rebound…market divided over where the bottom lies”

Bitcoin (BTC) has halted the steep selloff that began in mid-last month and managed a rebound, but it has been moving sideways around the $70,000 level, leaving the market’s direction still unclear. In the market, the prevailing view is that this rally is a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal.

According to BlockBeats, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, Bitcoin rebounded after falling for about a month since the 15th of last month from around $97,000 to the low-$60,000s. Since then, the price has been hovering near $70,000 for several days, and the market is laying out various scenarios around the bottoming zone.

Analyst Ali Martinez said, “Bitcoin is currently approaching the 200-week moving average, a level that has repeatedly served as a bear-market bottom and accumulation zone in the past.” He added, “Historically, Bitcoin bottoms formed in the MVRV zone around −1.0, which currently corresponds to about $52,000.”

Glassnode analyst Chris Bimlish said, “On a long-term holder cost basis, a strong support zone has formed above $60,000,” adding that “around $80,000, supply is clustered, acting as a key resistance level.”

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said, “If Bitcoin declines to additional support levels, similar to past bear markets, the bottom could form slightly below $42,000.” He added, “The bear-market lows in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022 all came close to this long-term support line.”

On-chain analyst Murphy said, “CVDD is currently around $44,900, and this indicator is steadily trending higher,” adding that “it is unlikely that Bitcoin’s low in this bear market will fall well below $45,000.”

Nick Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, focused on the duration of the bear market. He said, “Bitcoin has closed below the 100-week moving average for three consecutive weeks,” adding that “historically, after breaking below the long-term trendline, the lower range persisted for an average of 267 days.”

Meanwhile, MVRV is an indicator used to gauge overvaluation and undervaluation by comparing Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value; in the past, bear-market bottoms often formed near the −1.0 level. CVDD is an on-chain metric that reflects coin movement by long-term holders and destroyed coin days, and is used as a reference for estimating cycle lows over the long term.