JPMorgan cuts Coinbase price target to $290

Source

YM Lee

Summary

JPMorgan cut its price target on Coinbase from $399 to $290 and maintained an Overweight rating.
Coinbase is forecast to post Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, total trading revenue of $1.06 billion, and subscription and services revenue of $670 million.
Coinbase shares have fallen more than 50% since Bitcoin hit $126,000, and are down about 27% so far in 2026; key watch points include the durability of USDC revenue and the impact of the Deribit acquisition.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

JPMorgan has lowered its price target for U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase (Coinbase) to $290 from $399.

According to CoinDesk on the 10th (local time), ahead of Coinbase’s Q4 2025 earnings release, JPMorgan cut the target citing slowing crypto trading volumes, weaker prices, and decelerating USDC growth. It maintained its Overweight rating.

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington estimated Coinbase’s Q4 adjusted EBITDA at $734 million, down from $801 million in the previous quarter. Key factors cited were lower volumes, falling crypto prices, and slower growth in USDC circulation.

Spot crypto trading volume was estimated at $263 billion for the quarter. USDC-related revenue was expected at $312 million, reflecting the decline in circulation. JPMorgan said the performance of Deribit, the derivatives exchange acquired in August last year, provided a partial offset.

Total trading revenue for Q4, including Deribit, was estimated at $1.06 billion. Deribit’s contribution was analyzed at about $117 million, based on $586 billion in trading volume. In the prior quarter, Coinbase’s trading revenue was about $1.0 billion.

Subscription and services revenue was forecast at $670 million, below Coinbase’s prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million. JPMorgan said weaker crypto prices, lower staking revenue, and slowing USDC growth weighed on the segment.

Other brokerages offered more conservative views. Barclays put its adjusted EBITDA forecast for Coinbase about 10% below the market consensus, citing slowing retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. Compass Point maintained a negative stance ahead of the earnings release and raised the possibility of disappointing results in the subscription and services segment.

Coinbase shares have fallen more than 50% since Bitcoin hit $126,000 in October last year, and are down about 27% so far in 2026. The market is focused on early-2026 trading trends, the durability of USDC-related revenue, and how much the Deribit acquisition can mitigate earnings volatility.