KOSPI May Shift to a Slower Pace… ‘Stock Pickers’ Market’ Seen Ahead of Key Data [Today’s Market Preview]

Investors on guard ahead of major economic indicators

A stock-specific market likely to persist rather than a broad index rally

As the KOSPI enters a breather phase, attention is focused on whether it can extend its gains.

According to the Korea Exchange on the 10th, the KOSPI closed the previous day up 0.07% at 5,301.69. Although semiconductor heavyweights Samsung Electronics (-0.36%) and SK hynix (-1.24%) fell, the index rose for a second straight day and held above the 5,300 level. Retail investors took profits by unloading semiconductor names in size, while foreign investors and institutions bought them, supporting the downside of the index. Retail investors, who have driven the KOSPI this year, have turned net sellers for two consecutive sessions and are staying on the sidelines. Market attention appears to be shifting from previously leading groups—semiconductors, space and defense, and shipbuilding—to domestic-demand sectors such as retail and distribution, cosmetics, and hotels and leisure.

Retail investors bought Hanwha Aerospace the most in the domestic market the previous day (216.0 billion won). They were followed by Hyundai Motor (196.0 billion won), Hyundai Rotem (89.0 billion won), and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (69.0 billion won) among the top net buys. On the KOSDAQ, Rainbow Robotics ranked first in net buying. Foreign investors snapped up Samsung Electronics (308.0 billion won), SK hynix (70.0 billion won), POSCO Holdings (50.0 billion won), and APR (42.0 billion won) in that order. Institutions also bought heavily, including Samsung Electronics (147.0 billion won), SK hynix (67.0 billion won), and Korean Air (39.0 billion won).

Investors are growing more cautious ahead of key economic indicators that move markets. The market’s direction is expected to become clearer after Feb. 11 and 13, when the January jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), respectively, are released.

U.S. stocks were mixed amid worries about a slowing economy. On the 10th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 52.27 points (0.1%) from the previous day at 50,188.14. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.33% and 0.59%, respectively. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales in December last year were flat month on month (0%). The initial forecast had been a 0.4% increase. With the data falling short of expectations, investor sentiment failed to rebound. Core retail sales used to calculate personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in GDP also slipped 0.1% from the prior month.

On weaker consumption, Costco and Walmart shares fell 2.64% and 1.8%, respectively. Tech shares also declined across the board except for Tesla. Alphabet’s market capitalization fell below $4 trillion amid concerns over large-scale AI investment. Financials also fell on worries that the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) agents could encroach on financial services. Charles Schwab plunged 7.4% and LPL Financial sank 8.3%, while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase also slipped around 2%.

In the domestic market, analysts expect a ‘stock pickers’ market’ to persist rather than an index-led uptrend. Lee Kyung-soo, a researcher at Hana Securities, said, “Following the strong semiconductor earnings releases, the consensus for Korean corporate earnings has also entered a short-term lull, so additional earnings momentum could temporarily slow,” adding, “A ‘catch-up’ market in which performance gaps among stocks narrow is more likely than an index rally.” He advised investors to pay attention to undervalued names backed by earnings, including Hyundai Steel, Korea Gas Corporation, CJ CheilJedang, Lotte Shopping, GS, LG, E-Mart, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Industrial Bank of Korea, POSCO Holdings, HMM, and KCC.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, likewise said, “Today’s domestic market is likely to open lower amid weak U.S. consumption data and a softer Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, then move into a stock-specific market,” adding, “However, the probability of a sharp sell-off driven by technical overheating is low, so a strategy of raising cash allocations should be a lower priority.”

Reporter Jo Ara rrang123@hankyung.com