Summary
- According to CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in a 94.1% probability that the Fed will hold the benchmark rate at the March FOMC meeting.
- The probability of a 0.25%-point cut at the March FOMC meeting was tallied at 5.9%, indicating that expectations for a hold have expanded sharply.
- The probability rose sharply from 78.3% as January nonfarm employment beat forecasts and the unemployment rate came in below expectations.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has risen to above 90%. Expectations for a hold have widened sharply following the latest jobs data.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool on the 11th (local time), traders are pricing in a 94.1% probability that the benchmark rate will be held steady at the March FOMC meeting. The probability of a 0.25%-point cut was tallied at 5.9%.
This marks a sharp increase from the 78.3% probability of a hold prior to the release of January’s unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls report. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said January nonfarm employment rose by 130,000, above the market forecast of 66,000.
Over the same period, the unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, below the market estimate of 4.4%. The March FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 17–18 (local time).
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.
