US investment advisory firm: “Bitcoin could slide to $31,000”

Global investment research firm Ned Davis Research (NDR) offered a bearish outlook, warning that Bitcoin (BTC) could be pushed down to around $31,000 going forward. The analysis says that while the price has already fallen sharply from its peak, a full-blown “crypto winter” could make further steep losses unavoidable.

According to Business Insider on the 13th (local time), Pat Tschosik, NDR’s chief strategist, and analyst Philippe Mouls said in a client letter, “Selling pressure in Bitcoin has intensified recently, driving the price down sharply, but the decline may not be over,” adding the following.

Bitcoin is trading around $68,800, down about 45% from the peak it recorded in October last year. If it falls to $31,000 as in NDR’s scenario, it would represent an additional plunge of roughly 55% from current levels.

NDR’s researchers cited historical data. They explained, “Historically, when Bitcoin bear markets deepened, the drawdown from the peak reached 70–75%,” adding, “The average decline during Bitcoin winters since 2011 was 84%.”

They also pointed out that the consolidation period could last longer. Past bear markets lasted an average of 225 days, whereas only 129 days have passed in the current downturn since the peak.

Still, NDR left room for the possibility that this time could be different, citing greater participation by institutional investors than in the past, which could provide price support. The researchers said, “As time goes on, there is a tendency for the magnitude of declines in bear markets to gradually diminish,” adding, “This trend will continue.”

On Wall Street, negative forecasts for Bitcoin are continuing. John Blank, chief strategist at Jack’s Investment Research, predicted, “Given that crypto winters typically last more than a year, Bitcoin could fall to $40,000.” Investment bank Stifel also said in a report last week that Bitcoin could retreat to around $38,000.