PiCK

"A U.S.-Iran war could start soon"…Tensions at a peak

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

It reported that nuclear talks between the United States and Iran are heading toward the brink and that war could start soon.
It said the possibility has been raised of a large-scale full-blown war lasting several weeks involving the U.S. military and a U.S.-Israeli coalition.
A Trump adviser said there is a 90% chance of military action being launched within the next few weeks, citing signs that war is nearing.

U.S. outlet Axios: "War could start soon"

Trump adviser: "90% chance of military action being launched"

As nuclear talks between the United States and Iran hurtle toward the brink, a warning has emerged that the Trump administration is nearing a military operation against Iran. Analysts say it could go beyond a limited, localized airstrike and turn into a large-scale full-blown war lasting several weeks.

On the 18th (local time), U.S. online outlet Axios, citing sources, reported that "the Trump administration has moved much closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize," adding that "war could start soon."

This operation is expected to be on a different scale from the precision strike carried out during last month’s arrest of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. Sources believe it would be far broader than last year’s "12-day war," in which a U.S.-Israeli coalition struck Iranian nuclear facilities, taking the form of a full-scale war lasting several weeks.

At present, the U.S. military has effectively adopted a "wartime posture" by deploying two aircraft carriers and hundreds of fighter jets across the Middle East. Israeli officials are also reportedly reviewing scenarios for the outbreak of war within days.

President Trump’s pressure campaign has also reached its peak. After recently condemning Iran’s crackdown on anti-government protests and signaling "strong measures," he said on the 13th that regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen." This is seen as suggesting that the ultimate objective of military action goes beyond blocking the nuclear program to "regime change."

While prioritizing a diplomatic solution, the White House is not ruling out military options. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt strongly pressured Iran at a briefing, saying, "There is ample reason and justification to attack Iran."

One Trump adviser said, "Warnings against war are being raised around the president, but I think there is a 90% chance military action will be launched within the next few weeks."

Axios said that "Trump’s intensifying military and rhetorical pressure makes it difficult for him to back down unless Iran makes major concessions on its nuclear program," adding that "all signs suggest that Trump will pull the trigger if the talks fail."

It added, "There is no evidence that a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran is imminent, but evidence that war is imminent is growing."

Hong Min-sung, Hankyung.com reporter mshong@hankyung.com