[Analysis] "Bitcoin still in capitulation…$55,000 test possible"

JOON HYOUNG LEE

Summary

GugaOnChain said Bitcoin remains in a capitulation zone, with heavy selling pressure and extreme fear persisting.
With MPI at -1.11 and the Puell Multiple at 0.77, exchange inflows are falling and accumulation signals are emerging, while accumulators, retail investors and miners are acting as a support level, he said.
GugaOnChain noted that while a structural support base exists, the trend points to a downside test, leaving the door open to a drop below $60,000 and a possible test of the $55,000 realized price.

*Bitcoin (BTC) ‘Miner Position Index (MPI)’ trend. Photo=CryptoQuant*

Bitcoin (BTC) could extend its decline to $55,000, according to market watchers.

GugaOnChain, a CryptoQuant contributor, wrote on the 19th (local time) via CryptoQuant that “Bitcoin remains in a capitulation zone,” adding that “the market is surrounded by heavy selling pressure and extreme fear.” GugaOnChain said that “nevertheless, accumulators, retail investors and miners are acting as a kind of ‘geological support,’ temporarily underpinning prices in the $66,000–$70,000 range.”

He also referenced the ‘Miner Position Index (MPI).’ GugaOnChain said, “MPI recently came in at -1.11, with exchange inflows dropping sharply,” adding that “the ‘Puell Multiple’ is also at 0.77—profitability is low, but it can be interpreted as an accumulation signal.” MPI rises when miners increase the amount of Bitcoin they sell. He added that “(miners) are not immediately bringing supply to market, serving as a stabilizing mechanism that prevents excess liquidity.”

However, the analysis suggests Bitcoin is likely to fall below $60,000 in the near term. GugaOnChain noted, “While there is a structural layer of support, the trend still points to a downside test,” adding that “the possibility remains open for a test of the structurally realized price (Realized Price) of $55,000.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $66,949.69 on CoinMarketCap as of 3:14 p.m. on the day, down 1.15% from the previous day. Compared with a week earlier, it is down 0.3%.

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