U.S. Forces Deployed to Middle East at Largest Scale Since Iraq War… Oil Tops $70

War Clouds Over Middle East Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions

“Only Trump’s Final Decision Remains”

50 Fighter Jets Mass in Middle East in a Single Day

Additional Carrier Strike Group to Be Deployed This Weekend

Iran Takes Defensive Posture, Including Concealing Nuclear Facilities

Oil Up 4% on Fears of All-Out War

Gold Also Tops $5,000 per Ounce

The United States has entered talks aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, but signs are emerging within and outside the U.S. administration that war may be imminent. The Donald Trump administration has also indicated it will not rule out a military option. Iran has shifted into a wartime posture in preparation for a U.S. attack. Still, some expect the Trump administration, with midterm elections approaching, to act cautiously out of concern that a surge in oil prices could backfire.

Signs of ‘Imminent War’ Multiply

On the 18th (local time), CNN reported that senior U.S. national security officials held a meeting on Iran in the White House Situation Room. CNN said “the White House received a report that U.S. forces could complete preparations for an attack by this weekend,” adding that “President Trump has not made a final decision on whether to approve the operation.” It was also reported that the administration has not decided whether the operational objectives would be striking nuclear facilities, destroying missile capabilities, or toppling Iran’s regime.

U.S. news site Axios said it could spill into an all-out war if negotiations collapse. A source told Axios, “Unlike last month’s Venezuela operation, it is likely to be a long-term operation lasting several weeks.” It also said the Israeli government is pushing a scenario aimed at regime change in Iran.

The United States is deploying additional forces to the Middle East. Following the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group already stationed in the region, the Gerald Ford carrier strike group is also expected to arrive in the Middle East as early as this weekend.

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and CNN, the U.S. military in recent days has rushed advanced stealth fighters such as the F-35 and F-22, along with core fighter squadrons including F-15s and F-16s, to the region. It has also moved a large number of support assets—air refueling tankers, early warning aircraft and command-and-control aircraft—effectively forming a wartime posture. WSJ assessed that “the U.S. airpower concentrated in the Middle East is the largest since the 2003 ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom.’”

Iran is also stepping up defenses at military bases and nuclear facilities. According to Reuters, Iran has undertaken fortification work at the Parchin military base, which was attacked by Israel in October 2024, including installing concrete structures. Satellite images analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) show that Iran also filled in three entrances to the Isfahan uranium enrichment facility with soil to conceal them. Iran says it will launch massive retaliation if the United States attacks. The day before, it also conducted drills while blocking the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s largest oil shipping lane—for several hours.

“Hard to Narrow the Gap Between the Two Countries”

The United States and Iran held talks for about 3 hours and 30 minutes in Geneva, Switzerland, the day before, but failed to find a clear point of agreement. U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticized Iran in an interview with Fox News, saying it has no intention of observing the red lines set by the United States. Iran is said to have indicated it will return within two weeks with a concrete proposal to narrow differences, but U.S. hawks view this as a typical stalling tactic.

It has not been disclosed what “red line” President Trump presented to Iran. The United States, however, has demanded not only that Iran stop developing nuclear weapons but also limits on missile range and an end to the crackdown on anti-government protests. Iran, by contrast, is known to insist that only the nuclear issue and sanctions relief can be discussed. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran possesses uranium enriched to 60%—close to the 90% level considered near weapons-grade. WSJ noted, “Iran may be willing to suspend enrichment activities only until President Trump’s term ends.”

International Oil Prices Also Jump

Still, markets are pointing to the U.S. midterm elections as a variable. If a military clash drives up crude prices, it could translate into higher gasoline prices in the United States, potentially hurting President Trump. Denmark-based investment bank Saxo Bank told Bloomberg, “We don’t believe President Trump will take the risk of higher prices at U.S. gas stations in a year when inflation pressures have emerged as a key agenda item.”

Brent crude topped $70 for the first time in two weeks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rose more than 4% in a single day. There is also speculation that Iran could use oil-price volatility as a strategic card in talks with the United States. Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst at SEB, said, “Iran knows that disruptions to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and a spike in oil prices to $150 per barrel are what Trump least wants,” adding, “Iran has time to negotiate calmly.”

Reporter Han Myung-hyun wise@hankyung.com