Trump sets a two-week deadline for Iran… oil hits a six-month high

Brent, WTI up about 2%

Trump: “10–15 days is the maximum”

International oil prices rose about 2% after U.S. President Donald Trump set a deadline for Iran to abandon nuclear weapons. With growing speculation that the United States may strike Iran in the near term, oil has continued to climb this week.

According to CNBC, in remarks at the first meeting of the Peace Committee on the 19th (local time), President Trump said, “We may have to go one step further, or we may not,” adding, “Maybe we’ll reach a deal (with Iran). We’ll know the outcome within 10 days.”

He went on to stress that “Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.” He added, “It has been proven over many years that it is not easy to have meaningful negotiations with Iran,” warning that “if we don’t have meaningful negotiations, bad things will happen.”

He later elaborated to reporters aboard Air Force One on the “10 days” he mentioned in the speech. Trump told reporters it would be “enough time” for Iran, adding that “10 days or 15 days is almost the maximum.”

Some observers say Trump could launch a military strike before the two-week window he presented expires. During last June’s “Midnight Hammer” operation that hit three Iranian nuclear facilities, he also referenced a two-week deadline and carried out the operation two days later.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Trump is considering a limited strike on Iran, known as a so-called “bloody nose” operation. The plan envisions a first-phase attack targeting some military facilities and government institutions to force Iran to abandon nuclear weapons.

The WSJ said that if Iran still refuses to give up its nuclear program, the United States could move toward toppling Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime through a broad, all-out war. Such a full-scale war aimed at regime change in Iran is said to be contemplated as lasting about one week. Some advisers, however, are concerned that an all-out war with Iran could spread across the Middle East.

Oil prices rose as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. On ICE Futures, Brent crude futures for April delivery settled at $71.66 a barrel, up 1.9% from the previous session.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery also gained 1.9% to $66.43 a barrel. It was the highest close since August last year. WTI has jumped 16% so far this year.

Markets are worried that in the event of a military clash, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for Middle East crude exports. About one-third of global crude production passes through the strait.

Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital, said, “The inability to resolve the core issues is increasing the likelihood of another military conflict,” adding that “the major U.S. military buildup and Iran’s recent military drills in the Strait of Hormuz suggest that preparations for a second military clash have begun.”

Reporter Han Myung-hyun wise@hankyung.com