Kalshi users raise odds of Trump tariff refunds before July to 66%

JH Kim

Summary

Users of the prediction market Kalshi said they have raised the probability of tariff refunds before July to 66%.
It was interpreted that expectations for refunds increased after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were an overreach of authority.
Reuters said it expects the U.S. government’s tariff refunds could total about $135.5 billion.

As the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs exceeded his authority, users of the prediction market Kalshi are putting the probability of tariff refunds before July at 66%.

According to Walter Bloomberg on the 20th (local time), this is a sharp increase from the low-30% range seen recently. The rise is seen as driven by growing expectations for refunds after the Court deemed tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) unlawful.

Meanwhile, Reuters projected that the ruling could leave the U.S. government owing about $135.5 billion in tariff refunds. The scope and timing of any refunds are expected to depend on follow-up actions by the administration and additional legal proceedings.