"Bitcoin could see a repeat of the 2018 and 2022 plunges if it fails to hold $68,300"

An analysis suggests that if Bitcoin (BTC) breaks below a key support level, a sharp sell-off similar to past episodes could reemerge.

According to cryptocurrency news outlet The Daily Hodl on the 23rd, anonymous analyst Rekt Capital said on X (formerly Twitter) that further declines could accelerate if Bitcoin breaks down below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

"Historically, when the weekly candle closes below the 200-week EMA and that zone is then retested and confirmed as resistance, bearish momentum has accelerated," he said, adding that "the 200-week EMA is around $68,300." He continued, "If a weekly close forms below that level and any subsequent bounce turns into resistance, additional downside similar to past moves could unfold."

However, he also noted that Bitcoin has recently logged weekly closes above the 200-week EMA for two consecutive weeks. "The 200-week EMA is a key indicator for gauging whether further downside is likely," he said, calling a weekly close above it "a sign that temporarily puts a bearish confirmation on hold."

Even so, he warned, "If clear upside momentum fails to materialize, the risk remains that price could slip back below the 200-week EMA over time," adding that "past cases show precedents where failure to generate a meaningful rally from that zone ultimately led to a breakdown."