"Black Swan" author Taleb: 'AI rally entering a vulnerable phase…could lead to bankruptcies'

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan" who predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, warned that the current artificial intelligence (AI) boom is harboring risks that could erupt at any time. Taleb, who introduced the concept of “black swans” to describe unpredictable events with far-reaching impact, now serves as Chief Scientific Adviser at investment firm Universa Investments.

According to Bloomberg on the 23rd (local time), Taleb said at an investment-industry seminar that day that the "AI-driven rally has entered a more fragile phase," adding that "as volatility rises in the software sector and the industry is reshaped by technical instability, intense competition, and shifts in the geopolitical environment, the likelihood is high that some software companies will go bankrupt."

He argued that the market is underestimating structural risks in the AI sector while overestimating the durability of leading AI firms. He noted that, historically, most early pioneers in new industries were ultimately pushed out of the market. "Someone will make a lot of money from AI, but there is no guarantee it will be the companies currently driving the AI rally," he said.

Taleb also said the AI rally could continue for a while, but any selloff, once it comes, could be very large. "Because stock-market gains in recent years have been driven by a handful of AI-related names, the broader index could become vulnerable if market leadership rotates," he said, adding that "investors should always have hedges (risk diversification tools) in place."

He also interpreted the recent strength in gold prices as a sign that structural shifts are under way. He said growing U.S. fiscal deficits and concerns over the ‘weaponization of the dollar’ through sanctions policies are undermining confidence in dollar-denominated assets.

He criticized unpredictable U.S. tariff policy as likely to dampen investment. "If tariffs are permanent and clear, companies adapt, but if policy changes unpredictably, the incentive to invest capital disappears," he explained. He added that tariffs have the characteristics of a regressive tax that places a heavier burden on low-income households and worsens inequality.

He also mentioned the risk of disruptions to oil supply stemming from tensions between the United States and Iran. "Commodity-driven stagflation cannot be easily solved with monetary policy," he said. "Even if you brought Einstein to the U.S. central bank, you wouldn’t be able to solve this problem."

Reporter Han Kyung-je