Bitcoin briefly gives up $63,000… short-term holders step up ‘stop-loss’ selling, focus turns to potential bottom signal
Summary
- It reported that with Bitcoin falling below $63,000 and loss-driven selling by short-term holders increasing, the market has entered a capitulation phase.
- It reported that a drop in the on-chain indicator STH-SOPR, an expansion in short-term holders’ net realized losses, and the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio entering an excess loss realization zone were confirmed.
- It reported that Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is nearing a historical low range, while the market is discussing the likelihood of a medium- to long-term rebound after similar capitulation phases in the past, alongside the possibility that short-term volatility may persist.
As Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $63,000, analysis has emerged suggesting the market has entered a full-fledged capitulation (capitulation·mass selling) phase.
According to Cointelegraph, a crypto (cryptocurrency) news outlet, Bitcoin fell 4% over the past 24 hours, dropping as low as $62,700 intraday on the 24th. With loss-cutting sales by short-term holders continuing, downside pressure on prices has intensified, the report said.
The on-chain indicator Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) fell below 1 to around 0.95. This indicates that short-term holders are selling at a loss rather than at a profit. Another view is that the downtrend accelerated after President Donald Trump announced 15% global tariffs.
An analyst at XWIN Research Japan for CryptoQuant said, “The current selling is being driven by short-term holders, not long-term investors,” adding, “This is loss-realization selling stemming from uncertainty rather than structural distribution.”
According to Glassnode, net realized losses by short-term holders over the past seven days averaged about $500 million per day. Earlier this month, the figure widened to as much as $1.24 billion per day. The 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio also fell below 1, confirming entry into an “excess loss realization” zone, the report said.
At the same time, technical oversold signals are also appearing. Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell into the mid-20s, approaching a historical low range. That is lower than the previous trough recorded during the 3AC and Terra-Luna crises.
Meanwhile, as similar capitulation phases in the past were followed by medium- to long-term rebounds after additional short-term declines, the market is also discussing the possibility that a bottom may be forming. Still, a cautious view is that near-term volatility could persist for some time.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
