Bitcoin options worth $10.5 billion near expiry…a turning point for a shift into a bear market?

With monthly Bitcoin (BTC) options totaling $10.5 billion nearing expiry, the market is at a directional inflection point.

According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), the notional value of Bitcoin options expiring this Friday totals $10.5 billion. Analysts say that if the current price action persists, put (sell) options are structurally likely to gain the upper hand.

Bitcoin rebounded after forming a double bottom near $62,500, posting its highest level in eight days. Still, it remains down 21% from a month ago. In the options market, calculations show bulls would need an additional rise of roughly 9% from the current level around $68,800 to seize control.

By exchange, Deribit accounts for 76% of the total market, holding $4.5 billion in call options and $3.4 billion in put options. OKX holds a 10% share with $610 million in calls and $385 million in puts, while CME stands at about 5% with $255 million in calls and $287 million in puts.

On the surface, call open interest is 25% higher than put open interest, but the detailed structure tells a different story. In early February, Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $75,000 neutralized a significant number of neutral-to-bullish strategies. On Deribit, if Bitcoin remains below $70,000, as much as 88% of call options could expire worthless.

By contrast, on Deribit, put open interest positioned at $72,000 and above totals $1.15 billion, providing substantial downside protection. Put options targeting $60,000 or lower are also tallied at $1.44 billion.

The 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index is currently around 90%. This suggests that sentiment toward tech stocks is directly influencing confidence in the crypto market. In particular, analysts say U.S. equity market moves—including Nvidia earnings—could become a key variable affecting the outcome of the options expiry.

By price band, the profit-and-loss structure is estimated to favor puts by about $1.15 billion in the $65,000–$69,000 range, by $845 million in the $69,001–$71,000 range, and by $470 million in the $71,001–$74,000 range.