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Ethereum at a crossroads as it seeks to hold a daily close above $2,100… “whales’ breakeven level”

Source
YM Lee

Summary

  • It said that if ETH can secure a daily close above $2,100, it would reclaim whales’ average entry price, offering a gauge of whether a near-term trend reversal is underway.
  • It reported that over the past two days, $220 million worth of short-position liquidations occurred in the futures market, while $2.66 billion in long liquidation orders are positioned around $1,800.
  • Analysts said $2,250 channel resistance and the upper band of the Supertrend indicator are near-term technical barriers, while keeping the door open to a possible retest of the $1,500 range.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

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Ethereum (ETH)’s next direction is said to hinge on whether it can secure a daily close above $2,100.

According to Cointelegraph on the 25th (local time), ETH climbed to as high as $2,150 to mark a weekly peak, but volatility has persisted as it later slid back below $2,000. The market is pointing to $2,100 as a key resistance level and inflection point.

CryptoQuant data show that the realized price of whale wallets holding at least 100,000 ETH is clustered around $2,100. Realized price is the average price at which the coin last moved, serving as a gauge of holders’ profit-and-loss levels rather than the spot price. Since 2020, ETH has traded below this whale cohort’s realized price only in limited stretches, such as during the 2022 bear market.

Leverage has also been flushed out in the futures market. CoinGlass data show that more than $220 million in short positions were liquidated over the past two days. Meanwhile, around $2,800 there is an estimated $2.66 billion in long liquidations waiting, making that area a key liquidity zone.

On Binance, ETH funding rates flipped sharply negative earlier this month, but have recently rebounded into positive territory at around 0.23%. This suggests aggressive short liquidations, but it also raises the possibility of another long squeeze near $1,800 if long positioning becomes overly crowded.

Analysts said channel resistance around $2,250 and the upper band of the Supertrend indicator are near-term technical hurdles. Some do not rule out a retest of the $1,500 area. That zone falls within a weekly demand region between $1,691 and $1,384.

Ultimately, a key variable for a near-term trend reversal is whether ETH can finish the day above $2,100 and reclaim whales’ average cost basis.

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YM Lee

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